Moody’s Ratings has projected that India will record the highest growth among emerging markets and the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, with GDP expected to expand 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026. The agency said India’s domestic demand, investment momentum and structural reforms continue to support economic resilience despite global uncertainty.
Key Highlights of Moody’s Outlook
1. Strongest Growth in EM and APAC
- India is expected to lead all major emerging markets with 7% GDP growth in 2025.
- Growth is projected to moderate to 6.4% in 2026, still among the highest globally.
- In comparison, Asia-Pacific (APAC) growth is expected at 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026.
| Region | 2024 (Est.) | 2025 (Forecast) | 2026 (Forecast) |
| India | — | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| APAC Average | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Emerging Markets (Avg.) | — | 5.6% | — |
| Advanced APAC Markets (Avg.) | — | 1.3% | — |
2. Domestic Drivers Support Stability
Moody’s noted that India’s:
- Strong household consumption
- Ongoing government capital expenditure
- Steady private investment recovery
- Expanding services sector
continue to underpin macroeconomic stability.
These factors have helped offset global headwinds such as high interest rates in advanced economies and weaker global trade.
3. Rupee Weakness Not a Material Risk
Although the rupee has touched fresh lows against the US dollar, Moody’s said the impact on Indian corporates remains limited. This is because:
- Most rated companies have active currency risk management policies
- Many have natural hedges through export revenues
- Investment-grade issuers continue to have access to global capital markets
- Companies maintain strong liquidity and financial buffers
4. Broader Emerging Market Context
Moody’s estimates that:
- Emerging markets in APAC will grow around 5.6% on average in 2025, significantly above advanced economies.
- Advanced APAC markets – including Japan, Korea and Singapore – are expected to grow only 1.3% next year.
India therefore remains the largest contributor to regional growth.
Takeaway for Clients
Moody’s outlook reinforces India’s position as one of the world’s most resilient large economies, supported by domestic demand and robust fundamentals. For businesses and investors, this suggests:
- A favourable environment for medium-term expansion
- Continued stability in consumption and investment cycles
- Limited macro risk from currency volatility for well-managed corporates